Published: Oct. 25, 2018
By: Jacqueline DeRobertis, LSU Manship News Service
BATON ROUGE — A new national survey finds that Democrats hold a 12-point lead over Republicans in 72 battleground districts that will decide control of the U.S. House in the midterm elections.
The survey, conducted by The Cook Political Report and LSU’s Manship School of Mass Communication in collaboration with political consultant James Carville, indicates that Democrats lead Republicans 48-36 among registered voters in those districts.
‘Not like a slam dunk’
The survey also found that 42 percent of voters in the most competitive districts oppose President Trump or his policies, while 23 percent are voting to support the president.
Michael Henderson, the director of the Manship School’s Public Policy Lab, cautioned, however, that Democratic victories in many of the races are “not like a slam dunk.”
Which side turns out more of its supporters will be crucial. Other surveys show that the parties are running “neck to neck” in terms of the likelihood that their supporters will actually vote on Nov. 6, he said.
“The one thing we know about this election to almost a certainty is that the turnout is going to be a record high,” Carville said. “When that happens, some weird things can happen on election day.”
Read more in the Shreveport Times.